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COVID-19 to have a bigger impact on Pacific economies: ANZ
8:03 pm GMT+12, 11/03/2020, Fiji

COVID-19 is now impacting the global economy.  
 
At present, ANZ believe a global economic slowdown is in play, with a growing chance that a global recession could materialise if economies facing a major disruption do not promptly implement fiscal stimulus to offset reduced demand.
 
Accordingly, ANZ now believe the coronavirus will have a bigger impact on the Pacific economies.  
 
Our conclusions are:  
 
* Under a global economic slowdown (our baseline case), Fiji- the Pacific’s biggest tourism market - stands to lose 32k visitors, FJD$74 million (US$33.3 million) in tourism exports and FJD$204 million (US$91.9 million) in gross output. This will subtract about 0.6ppt from nominal GDP.  
 
*If a global recession shock eventuates, the damage escalates to 116,000 fewer visitors, an FJD$269million (US$121 million) fall in tourism exports and a FJD741,000 (US$333,000) decline in gross output and -2.3ppt from nominal GDP. Samoa, Cook Islands, Vanuatu and Tonga are each affected.
 
*We believe the Pacific economies can weather a global economic slowdown, but should plan for a more serious global recession shock. Private remittance flows, often a natural stabiliser during shocks, won’t be enough. Governments will need to meet the disruption with fiscal stimulus to support the economy, jobs, businesses and industry. World Bank and the IMF emergency financing facilities designed to protect economies, jobs, businesses and industry are an option.

SOURCE: ANZ/PACNEWS


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